In one year – almost to the day – Californians will head to the polls in the state’s gubernatorial primary.
And despite a crowded field – 17 candidates in all have officially declared – all eyes are on former Vice President Kamala Harris, who has long been rumored to be eying the governor’s mansion, but has avoided entering the race thus far.
To be sure, if she were to declare her candidacy, Harris would almost certainly make it to the final round of the primary, given her name recognition, which she’s taken steps to strengthen via high-profile speeches and increased visibility.
However, waiting this long to either declare or refute her candidacy comes with inherent risks for the former VP.
Indeed, as Harris weighs her options, the race remains frozen, and the greater the risk of her losing some of the appeal she had following her loss to President Trump last November.
Put another way, immediately after that election, Harris’ name recognition and approval ratings were high among Democrats, and many considered her a front runner for either California governor or a 2028 presidential bid.
However, in the interim, Harris has done little to address perceptions that she is too far to the left at a time when voters nationally – and in California – have moved to the middle, particularly on social issues.
That being said, as a former VP who, thrust into an unprecedented campaign, came within a few points in a handful of states from winning the presidency, Harris may believe governor would be a good “rebound” and an easy win.
Of course, there is one fundamental problem Harris faces: it would be virtually impossible to run for governor next year and then run for president in 2028.
Either she’d have to push off – or abandon – her presidential hopes, or open herself up to attacks that she used California as a launching pad for Washington.
To that end, Harris is approaching the point on the calendar where her silence does more harm than good.
Currently, nine Democrats have declared their candidacy for governor, including former U.S. Rep Katie Porter, the presumed front-runner should Harris not run.
Notably, last December, Porter seemed to acknowledge in an interview that Harris’ entrance into the race would be a “field clearing event.”
More recently however, Porter signaled that she’s done waiting for the former VP to decide. Porter recently told CNN, “This is a moment that calls for leadership, and I am not waiting.”
In that same vein, other Democrats have expressed frustration with Harris’ indecision.
Former Los Angeles mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, another candidate, recently said, “The challenges are too big. We deserve a real conversation…So no, you can’t get in at the end of the rainbow. Get in now.”
Donors are frozen as well. One Democratic consultant told Politico that “Donors aren’t going to write [maximum] checks when there’s the prospect for musical chairs.”
Harris’ delay, the consultant continued, “hurts every candidate in the race…she has the luxury of waiting as long as she wants, but I don’t think that’s good for the race, good for the party, or good for the voters.”
It isn’t just Harris’ indecision that’s angering fellow Democrats, but also her possible motives.
Toni Atkins, a former state legislator who is also running, made it clear she thinks Harris views the governorship solely as a steppingstone to Washington. Atkins said, “The next governor must absolutely want to serve as Governor for California and not see the job as a stop along the way.”
Criticism aside, were Harris to officially enter the race, she’d likely be an immediate front runner.
As CNN has reported, Harris “has seen private poll numbers that show her with essentially universal name recognition and strong approval ratings among Democrats in California.”
Public polls confirm this as well.
Emerson College surveyed California voters – including Independents and Republicans – and found that Harris (28%) led the field by an incredibly wide margin. No other candidate was in double digits.
With that in mind, Harris’ appeal may be slowly fading, and the longer she waits, the worse it will likely be.
The same Emerson poll shows that Californians are split on whether they want Harris to run for governor, with 50% saying yes, and 50% saying no.
For comparison, immediately after the 2024 election, UK Berkeley polling found that 42% of Californians did not want Harris to run for governor, compared to 46% who did.
Even among Californians who voted for Harris in 2024, the Emerson poll shows that barely a majority (52%) choose her first in a gubernatorial horse race, while roughly one-quarter (24%) don’t think she should run for governor at all.
Further, it isn’t just politics and timing that could give Harris pause. Being the Governor of California is not an easy job.
The state is facing a $12 billion budget shortage next year, is dealing with an immense rebuilding effort from the wildfires, and also must prepare to host both the 2026 World Cup and 2028 Olympics.
Dealing with all of those issues will require California’s Governor to have a working relationship with President Trump. Current Gov. Gavin Newsom has handled this well, but it’s highly unlikely Harris would be able to walk the same tightrope.
Finally, there are lingering concerns over her position in the Biden administration, and her comments during the campaign that “not a thing comes to mind” when asked whether she’d do things differently than Biden.
To be absolutely clear, this is not to disparage former President Biden, who I sincerely wish a speedy recovery.
Nonetheless, a considerable number of Independents may have doubts about her, either as a governor or potential presidential candidate.
To her credit, Harris not only has the infrastructure in place, but also has shown an ability to run a significantly larger campaign in a compressed amount of time.
Ultimately however, the longer Harris waits to decide her future, the weaker her position likely becomes, and the more damaging it is for Democrats.
Douglas Schoen is a longtime Democratic political consultant.
