A line from Shakespeare’s Hamlet refers to a character being “hoist with his own petard.” A petard is a small explosive device, and the saying refers to someone getting injured by their own actions in a failed effort to harm others. It implies a sort of poetic justice, where the perpetrator of the plan ends up suffering the consequences of their own scheme. Not surprisingly, this is a common occurrence in politics when a maneuver to secure an advantage over one’s adversaries ends up blowing up in the face of the instigator.
So, is Gov. Gavin Newsom’s big push to change California’s Congressional maps likely to backfire? If the past is prologue, it very well could.
First, let’s examine some other political examples of exploding petards. One of our favorites is when former Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada changed the rules of the Senate to achieve favorable judicial rulings in the hotly disputed Obamacare litigation. Specifically, the Obama administration was able to change the makeup of the D.C. Circuit after Reid broke the rules of the Senate to eliminate the filibuster for judicial nominees. As a result, Reid was able to push through three new judges for the D.C. Circuit. Up to that time, judicial appointments required a 60-vote threshold.
As he had done previously, Senate Republican leader, Mitch McConnell, warned Senator Reid that he would “rue the day” by jettisoning an established rule of the Senate in order to jam through judicial nominees. When those warnings were ignored, newly elected President Donald Trump was able to nominate three new justices to the U.S. Supreme Court. All were confirmed under the new “Reid Rule” with a simple majority vote of the Senate.
Another example of “being careful what you wish for,” involves the hotly contested issue of congressional redistricting, a subject of debate in both Texas and California. Recently, the Wall Street Journal ran an editorial entitled, “The Racial Gerrymander Boomerang” which reviewed how a lawsuit filed by Democrats is now being used by Republicans to increase their House majority. Specifically, “Liberal groups and the Biden Justice Department in 2021 challenged the [Texas] map under Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act. The law says states violate the voting rights of racial minorities when they ‘have less opportunity than other members of the electorate to participate in the political process and to elect representatives of their choice.’”
Reapportionment – the process by which the 435 members of Congress are allocated among the states – only occurs every 10 years based on the national census. States then draw the congressional district maps for their allotted representatives. But the Trump Department of Justice is using that lawsuit as an excuse to rewrite the Texas map in mid-decade. Whether this is good policy is subject to debate. But absent the litigation commenced by progressives, there wouldn’t have been an opportunity for Republicans to bootstrap a legislative effort in the Texas statehouse to rewrite the map in a way to increase the Republican advantage.
In reaction to the possible redrawing of the Texas Congressional map to benefit Republicans, Democrats are throwing a hissy fit and have promised to retaliate by doing the same in California. Gov. Gavin Newsom has been especially vocal about pursuing this strategy, notwithstanding the fact that, unlike Texas, California has a voter-approved Citizens Redistricting Commission constitutionally charged with drawing political boundaries.
If Newsom vigorously pursues this plan, will he be “hoist with his own petard?” That is a very likely scenario. First, if he spends significant political capital on this and fails, he will look very weak. Second, the plan would require both legislative and voter approval. As of this writing, it is very unclear whether all the legislative Democrats are on board. Moreover, the entire point of Prop 20 (2010) was to vest in an independent body the politically charged task of drawing political boundaries. Even at its formative stage, Gavin’s plan is taking massive incoming fire from partisans across the political spectrum as well as nonpartisan good government groups.
In the famous words of the former Republican leader of the U.S. Senate, Newsom may “rue the day” he tried to hijack the redistricting process.
Jon Coupal is president of the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association.
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