The détente between President Donald Trump and Governor Gavin Newsom, which had largely held for the first four months of Trump’s term, is now over.
Amid protests against Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents that have gripped Los Angeles, Trump and Newsom are hurling aggressive rhetoric and threats at each other, with Trump threatening to arrest Newsom and the governor calling Trump an “authoritarian.”
Further, there is now very real violence in the streets of Los Angeles, as protestors clash with federal agents backed by hundreds of United States Marines.
To be sure, while there are consequences for how both men handle this conflict, Newsom – and Democrats as a whole – have significantly more to lose the longer the unrest lasts.
Indeed, not only does Newsom have to worry about how his political ambitions may be impacted by the chaos in downtown Los Angeles, but he and Democrats are now at severe risk of losing the narrative surrounding immigration.
Unfortunately for Democrats, it seems like they’ve already surrendered the narrative.
Worse, Democrats are playing right into Trump’s hand on immigration, a top concern for voters last November and an issue where Trump’s policies continue to enjoy widespread support.
It is increasingly likely that as images of cars being torched, police officers being assaulted, and businesses being looted spread, public support for Trump’s hardline policies will grow.
Democratic Senator John Fetterman seems to recognize the negative impact this can have.
Last Monday, after reiterating his support for “free speech, peaceful demonstrations, and immigration” he then took his party to task, saying “My party loses the moral high ground when we refuse to condemn setting cars on fire, destroying buildings, and assaulting law enforcement.”
To that end, the longer it appears that Newsom and LA Mayor Karen Bass are unable to restore law and order, the belief that Democrats are unable to provide public safety – already a problem for the party – will be reinforced.
Make no mistake, this is not to say Trump’s decision to send in nearly 1,000 Marines is correct, nor is it to say I agree with some of his more extreme positions on deportations.
Instead of mass deportations and family separation, Trump would be better served focusing on deporting illegal migrants who commit crimes and working on a pathway to citizenship for DREAMers and other migrants who contribute to the United States.
However, this is to warn Democrats generally, and Governor Newsom specifically, that by taking a soft approach to lawlessness, they are in danger of once again taking the wrong side of an “80/20” issue.
In reality, the numbers are not that far off. Just over one-third (36%) of Americans – including 34% of Independents – approve of the protests per YouGov polling.
Writing in The Free Press, Ruy Teixera perfectly described the trap Democrats and Newsom have fallen into.
After lamenting that Democrats have learned nothing from the nationwide riots in 2020, Teixera said, “The chaos in Southern California could have been designed in a lab to exploit Democratic weak spots, combining the issues of illegal immigration, crime, and public disorder.”
He continued, “Yet their most visible response to the anti-deportation riots in Los Angeles has been to denounce President Trump for sending National Guard troops to quell the riots.”
To that end, even if federalizing the National Guard and mobilizing Marines added fuel to the fire, that does not excuse Newsom for repeatedly walking into Trump’s trap.
Rather than pledging to crack down on the people blatantly breaking the law, Newsom’s early reaction had revolved around attacking Trump, paying only brief lip service to condemning the violence.
As a political strategist for many decades, it is horrible optics for Newsom and Democrats to be seen as condoning chaos in the streets.
It also does Democrats no favors when Newsom tweets out “Donald Trump has manufactured a crisis and is inflaming conditions” on top of a video of protestors setting a police car on fire.
In that same vein, it now appears that, after tacking to the center ahead of a likely presidential run, Newsom feels that in order to remain viable in a Democratic primary, he needs to veer hard to the left on immigration.
But, by appearing to take the side of the rioters and blaming Trump, Newsom is pandering to the progressive wing of the Democratic Party which voters resoundingly rejected last November.
It now appears that Newsom recognizes that to be a mistake.
In his interview with the New York Time’s “The Daily” podcast, the governor reaffirmed the value of his outreach to conservatives, emphasized his past cooperation with ICE, and tried distancing himself from “sanctuary city” policies.
Democrats should – and must – be able to push back against some of Trump’s excesses without being seen as disregarding the issues of public safety or law and order, something Newsom is belatedly attempting to do.
In fact, that is also the most popular political position.
While a plurality (49%) of Americans approve of Trump’s handling of immigration, two-thirds (67%) say Trump is making mistakes in handling deportations, and a plurality (47%) of Americans believe Trump’s approach is “too harsh” per Economist/YouGov polling.
Ultimately, this could have been a watershed moment for Newsom and Democrats.
If the governor took a strong stand against civil unrest while also expressing sympathy for undocumented migrants without criminal records, it would have gone a long way to boosting his moderate credentials.
Similarly, Democrats could have harshly condemned lawlessness, agreed that migrants with criminal records should be deported, and pushed their own pathway to citizenship for others.
Instead, they’re giving Trump everything he wants: split screen media coverage of California Democrats insisting the chaos is manufactured on one side, with cars going up in flames and rioters assaulting federal agents on the other.
If Democrats as a whole, or Newsom specifically, refuse to change course, the party will remain in the political wilderness, while Newsom’s viability in a general election will suffer significantly.
Douglas Schoen is a longtime Democratic political consultant.
