While speaking to a group of students at an event organized by the James Madison Memorial Fellowship Foundation in Virginia in 2023, historian H.W. Brands told a room full of Lin Manuel Miranda fans that Alexander Hamilton never won the presidency because he just wasn’t that likable.
“In the politics of any democracy, if you think about it, elections in democracies are, at the bottom, popularity contests. Who do you like?” he explained.
Come to think of it, why do you think they call it the “popular vote”?
The same is true for issues. Popular issues command broad support from the electorate. Good luck getting your initiative passed, if its position is unpopular.
All of this is not to say that the public doesn’t change their mind from time to time. They do. Ideas that were once unpopular can become popular over time. Or vice-versa, like prohibition or Ted Kennedy.
However, when interest groups take one of their most unpopular ideas and make it a litmus test issue, it’s political suicide for them and their entire program.
That’s exactly what we are seeing happen right now to LGBT advocacy groups, due to their indefatigable, unwavering support for transgender athletes in women and girls sports, among other boutique issues.
In May of 2025, a Gallup Poll found that 69 percent of U.S. adults believe that transgender athletes should play only on teams matching their birth sex, while 24 percent support teams aligning with gender identity.
Additionally, the pollster colluded that, “Between 2021 and now, Democrats’ and Independents’ levels of support for transgender athletes to play on sports teams that align with their current gender identity have both fallen by 10 points (to 45 percent and 23 percent, respectively), while Republicans’ support has not changed significantly.”
The idea is so unpopular, not even a majority of Democrats support it. However, you wouldn’t know that based on the reaction LGBT allies get when they voice their support for keeping girls sports for biological girls.
After last year’s presidential election, Massachusetts Democratic Congressman Seth Moulton told the New York Times the Democratic Party spends “way too much time trying not to offend anyone rather than being brutally honest, about the challenges Americans face.” He went on to say that ”I have two little girls, I don’t want them getting run over on a playing field by a male or formerly male athlete, but as a Democrat I’m supposed to be afraid to say that.”
In response to Moulton’s comments, a top aide resigned, the Democratic governor of Massachusetts condemned him, a Salem councilwoman called on him to resign, and protests took place outside his offices and events that he attended.
The only good news is that the woman from Salem didn’t demand that Moulton be burned at the stake.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom was met with a similar backlash, after he called it “deeply unfair” for transgender athletes to participate in girls’ sports on a podcast with conservative influencer Charlie Kirk.
After the podcast aired, Assemblyman Chris Ward, a San Diego Democrat who leads the California Legislative LGBTQ Caucus, said, “We woke up incredibly sickened and disappointed, because somebody who’s been a consistent ally of our community made these remarks.”
The organization Athlete Ally, which aims to support the rights of LGBT sportspeople, severed ties with tennis champion Martina Navratilova for saying it was “cheating” to allow transgender women to compete in female competition because they would benefit from unfair physical advantages.
Here is the thing: if you tell supporters either they are with you 100 percent of the time or they are your enemy, you’re going to end up with a lot of enemies.
As Ronald Reagan used to say, a man who agrees with you 80 percent of the time is not your enemy. And who wouldn’t question the judgement of a group who excommunicated them from the flock? What have they got to lose?
We are already seeing that happening with eroding Republican support for gay marriage.
According to Gallup, support for same-sex marriage among Republicans has fallen to 41 percent, down from a high of 55 percent in 2021 and 2022.
Politics is a game of addition and not subtraction.
If you tell self-described allies that they’re actually bigots for taking a position shared by a super-majority of the country, don’t be surprised when parts of your coalition start to break off.
As it turns out, scolds just aren’t that likable.
John Phillips can be heard weekdays from noon to 3 p.m. on “The John Phillips Show” on KABC/AM 790. Follow him on X @JohnnyDontLike
