Governor Gavin Newsom’s recent pivot to the political center confirms what many have long assumed: the term-limited governor has begun auditioning for a much higher office, this one in Washington, DC.
Newsom has long been considered a potential Democratic frontrunner in 2028, although how the governor is starting his unofficial campaign is surprising, and certainly worth watching.
Indeed, in recent months, Newsom has positioned himself closer to the center on a range of issues, breaking from Democratic orthodoxy in order to distinguish himself as a more viable presidential candidate.
As such, he has even hosted MAGA celebrities Steve Bannon and Charlie Kirk on his new podcast, “This is Gavin Newsom” and has begun distancing himself from his party’s most extreme, unpopular stances on certain social issues.
Further, in much the same way Newsom debated Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and spoke to Fox Host Sean Hannity, the Governor is showcasing his willingness to debate Republicans and defend his positions that few, if any, Democrats are.
Speaking to Kirk, Newsom suggested that the participation of transgender athletes in women’s sports is “deeply unfair.” This was a startlingly rare admission from a leading Democrat, particularly one who has long been one of the strongest supporters of LGBTQ rights.
During the same conversation, Newsom took aim at the “defund the police” movement – calling it “lunacy” – distanced himself from progressive terms like “Latinx,” and seemed to agree when Kirk stated that the leaders of Black Lives Matter had engaged in questionably illegal behavior.
Predictably, the interview with Bannon was not as smooth as the cordial chat with Kirk, although it was, “both good-natured and peppered with predictable disagreements” according to the New York Times.
The two men even had noticeable points of agreement, such as on tax cuts and their common opinions of Elon Musk.
By interviewing Bannon and Kirk, Newsom is showing that he learned the lessons of the 2024 election, namely that Democrats cannot broaden their base if they refuse to talk to the other side and only exist in a left-leaning bubble.
Put another way, Newsom is telling the wider Democratic Party that in order to win national elections, they must present a credible, moderate alternative to the GOP, welcome opposition, and then convincingly defend it to the American people.
To be sure, Newsom’s pivot has gone beyond what he’s said and who he has said it to. Recent policy moves have also been closer to the center.
In order to speed up rebuilding efforts from the devastating wildfires earlier this year, Newsom has slashed California’s burdensome environmental and zoning regulations.
And following the 2024 election, Newsom began making appearances in red parts of California, such as Bakersfield, Redding, and Colusa.
According to the LA Times, which noted his visits, Newsom unveiled his “Jobs First Economic Blueprint” in the deepest red areas of the state, likely aimed at voters who fled the Democratic Party in recent years.
This is not to say that Newsom’s sharp turn towards the center is risk-free. He faces the very real risk that he will alienate the party’s activist base before the primaries even begin.
To that end, the pushback against Newsom has already begun.
Scott Weiner, a Democratic state senator called it “deeply disappointing” that Newsom “aligned with Republicans” on the transgender athletes issue.
Kelly Robinson, the president of the largest LGBTQ advocacy group in the country went a step further. She said, “our message to Governor Newsom…is simple: The path to 2028 isn’t paved with the betrayal of vulnerable communities.”
And yet, the data suggests that Newsom may actually be considerably more in line with voters – including Democrats – than either Mr. Weiner or Ms. Robinson claim.
Nearly 8-in-10 (79%) of national voters – including two-thirds (67%) of Democrats and a similar 64% of Independents – believe transgender athletes should not be allowed to compete in women’s sports per New York Times/Ipsos polling.
Newsom’s more centrist position, and willingness to say them publicly, strongly suggest that his presidential campaign – when it comes – will be about winning those voters in the middle, rather than catering to Democrats’ activist base.
And again, on this point, the data backs Newsom. A strong plurality (45%) of Democrats want their party to become “more moderate” versus 29% who want it to become more liberal, per Gallup polling.
The share of Democrats wanting the party to moderate is up 11-points since 2021.
As Newsom sees it, the party’s extreme position on these divisive social issues turns off the very voters they need: working-class Americans who want officials to prioritize economic concerns, not gender rights issues.
To his credit, Newsom also correctly recognizes that the easiest path to the White House is not a “California progressive” but rather a center-left Democrat.
In many ways, Newsom is attempting to do what former President Bill Clinton did. He moved to the center on welfare reform, challenged Democratic orthodoxy, and robbed Republicans of their advantage on these issues.
Ultimately, whether or not Newsom can balance the electoral need to move to the center without permanently breaking from the Democratic activist base remains to be seen.
At this point though, he has managed to do so, and if he can sustain this shift, he very well may break away from the rest of Democrats’ 2028 hopefuls.
Douglas Schoen is a longtime Democratic political consultant.