Under better circumstances, the test that Nysos faces in the Pacific Classic at Del Mar on Saturday would have checked off his to-do list long ago.
In February 2024, the Bob Baffert-trained colt was the top-ranked 3-year-old in the country, having won his first three races by nearly 27 combined lengths at distances from 6 furlongs to 1 mile. Nysos was gearing up for Grade I competition in the 1⅛-mile Santa Anita Derby and then, presumably, the 1 3/16-mile Preakness and 1¼-mile Belmont Stakes. (He wouldn’t have run in the Kentucky Derby because of Churchill Downs’ ban, since lifted, on Baffert’s horses.) But a physical issue sidelined Nysos in March 2024, and then in April, and eventually for 15 months before his return to action with two wins in three starts this spring and summer.
Only now will Nysos get to try a Grade I stakes at 1¼ miles, when he takes on Journalism, Fierceness and five other horses in the Pacific Classic, Del Mar’s marquee race for 3-year-olds and up.
It’s a test he appears capable of passing.
The opposition demands respect in one of the strongest of the 35 runnings of the Pacific Classic. Three-year-old Journalism goes into his first race against older horses following tenacious wins in the Santa Anita Derby, the Preakness and the Haskell Stakes sandwiched around seconds to Sovereignty in the Kentucky Derby and the Belmont. Four-year-old Fierceness, shipped in from New York, is the 2023 2-year-old champion who has been first-rate on his best days in winning the 2024 Travers and running a well-earned second to Sierra Leone in the 2024 Breeders’ Cup Classic at Del Mar.
The distance presents a real question mark, too. While Journalism has those two seconds to Sovereignty at 1¼ miles, and Fierceness won the Travers at the distance, Nysos will be attempting a double jump after never going longer than the 1 1/16-mile distance of his San Diego Handicap victory July 26.
Baffert is on the record saying, after Nysos’ swift win in the 7-furlong Triple Bend Stakes at Santa Anita on May 31, that 1¼ miles is within his range.
“He’s a (Breeders’ Cup) Classic horse. He can run all day,” Baffert said after the Triple Bend.
But this week he acknowledged that such stamina must yet be proven, and said he isn’t getting ahead of himself and fixating on the Breeders’ Cup Classic, the $7 million main event of the Oct. 31-Nov. 1 Breeders’ Cup at Del Mar.
“There’s always a question until they do it,” Baffert said on the phone this week. “If (Saturday’s race) was a mile and an eighth, would I feel better? Yes.
“I think we’re going to find out what’s going to suit him better for the Breeders’ Cup. Will it be the Classic? Will it be the (Dirt) Mile? Will it be the (6-furlong) Sprint? He could run well in (any of the) three races.”
Nysos’ breeding says he’ll get 1¼ miles. He’s by Nyquist, the 2016 Kentucky Derby winner, out of Zetta Z, herself a daughter of Bernardini, winner at this distance in the 2006 Travers and Jockey Club Gold Cup.
And Nysos has been dominant at shorter distances. His victories at age 2 included an 8¾-length romp in the 7-furlong Bob Hope Stakes at Del Mar over Stronghold, the eventual Santa Anita Derby winner. His win at 3 was a 7½-length runaway in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes that earned speed figures as high as you’ll see for a horse that young. Even his lone loss in six career starts was impressive, a neck defeat to the top-class Mindframe after a wide trip in the Grade I, 7-furlong Churchill Downs Stakes in May.
Some of the best bets in racing are horses of demonstrable talent who are trying a higher class or different distance for the first time. The shadow of doubt can lead the public to let such horses get away at slightly more generous odds than they deserve. Nysos’ odds will bear watching.
The Pacific Classic morning line reflects two- or three-deep contention:
1. Fierceness (John Velazquez riding), 124 pounds, 3-1 odds; 2. Midnight Mammoth (Armando Ayuso), 124, 12-1; 3. Ultimate Gamble (Kazushi Kimura), 124, 20-1; 4. Nysos (Flavien Prat), 124, 8-5; 5. Indispensable (Paco Lopez), 124, 15-1; 6. Journalism (Umberto Rispoli), 118, 9-5; Lure Him In (Hector Berrios), 124, 20-1, and Tarantino (Edwin Maldonado), 124, 20-1.
“You trying to jinx me?” Baffert said he told John Lies, Del Mar’s morning-line maker.
Nysos could end up favored on the tote board as he is on the morning line, especially given Baffert’s popularity with bettors. Or it could be Journalism, popular in his own right after his success in Triple Crown races.
“Journalism deserves to be the favorite,” Baffert said. “What he’s done is remarkable.”
It should be a fair test for all of them. Fierceness’ habitual early speed and inside draw could force Velazquez to go to the lead. Enough of the other horses have speed and should keep Fierceness honest. Nysos and Journalism can sit in mid-pack before making their runs.
“This is going to be the toughest race he’s ever run in, other than the one after the layoff, which was a really tough race – and he almost pulled it off,” Baffert, who has trained a record seven Pacific Classic winners, said of Nysos. “He’s going to have to run his race. He’s still young, he hasn’t run that many times. You count on their talent to get them the rest of the way.”
Nysos has the talent, and whether he gets the rest of the way we’ll find out sometime after 6:11 p.m. Saturday, when the Pacific Classic is run as the 10th race on a card starting at 1:30.
The picks here: 1. Nysos, 2. Journalism, 3. Fierceness, 4. Indispensable.
Follow horse racing correspondent Kevin Modesti at X.com/KevinModesti.
