Trump’s new Russia strategy may be too little too late – San Bernardino Sun

President Trump’s – belated – decision to apply pressure to Russia rather than Ukraine to stop the devastating war between those two countries may be a welcome change, although it’s far from adequate. 

Indeed, when Trump announced his ultimatum to Russian President Vladimir Putin to stop the war or face crushing sanctions on Russia’s energy exports, Trump simultaneously gave Putin a gracious 50 days to comply.

While this change in strategy is surely appreciated among the majority Americans who care about stopping Russia’s brutality, it still plays into Putin’s hands and falls far short of the decisive action needed to end this war.

True, the front lines had been frozen for much of the last 18 months, but in recent weeks, Russian troops have slowly advanced on a few fronts, seizing more Ukrainian territory.

Additionally, between April and June, Russia was able to drastically ramp up its drone production, resulting in increasingly devastating attacks. 

In April, Russia launched a little over 2,000 drones at Ukraine, but by June, it was more than 5,000 according to the New York Times. With a 50-day window, Putin has more than enough time to scale up attacks even more, endangering tens of thousands of civilians.

It also gives Putin – a former KGB operative – time to develop sanctions workarounds, blunting their impact and further eroding perceptions of American power. 

Moreover, Putin has shown no willingness to alter his maximalist demand of total domination of Ukraine. 

The exorbitant damage to Russia’s economy brought on by the war and ensuing sanctions, as well as over one million Russian casualties per the British Ministry of Defense have done little to move the Russian President.

With this in mind, it’s legitimate to wonder why yet another sanctions package would have any impact on getting Putin to give up on what he sees as his life’s mission: restoring the greatness of the former Soviet Union. 

Even Trump seemingly recognizes that Putin has never been serious about negotiations and prefers to drag things out while claiming more Ukrainian territory.

Earlier this month, Trump erupted at Putin, saying the Russian President does nothing but shower the U.S. with “bullshit” and “meaningless” talks.

To be sure, any effort to end this war, now in its fourth year, should be applauded, as should enhanced sanctions designed to stop countries from buying Russian energy and propping up Putin’s war machine. 

However, it should be clear by now that this is not enough and that 50 days is too much time. 

Unfortunately, time is not on Ukraine’s side. Having defended their homeland valiantly for more than three and a half years, the war has taken an unimaginable toll on civilians and the military.

Weapons shortages have been a frequent occurrence which may only partly be relieved by Trump’s other reversal – approving the sale of military aid after previously halting it.

Further, cracks have begun emerging in Ukrainian domestic politics due to war’s stressors.

After President Zelenskyy signed a controversial law reorganizing the country’s anti-corruption bodies, protests erupted in Kyiv and European capitals issued harsh vocal condemnations. 

Without wading too deep into Ukraine’s internal matters, it would be distressing for the country to begin a backslide into corruption while at the same time receiving massive sums of foreign aid.

That being said, I mention the reaction to the shakeup of the country’s anti-corruption agencies to underscore a more fundamental point: it highlights that tension is beginning to boil at precisely the wrong time. 

Both the new law itself and the unrest its sparked all play into Putin’s hands at the very time Trump is attempting to exert direct pressure on the Russian President. 

In that way, it extends yet another opening for Putin to double down on his long-term territorial ambitions, and that is a direct threat to the safety of the United States. 

If able to dominate Ukraine, Putin may set his sights on other Western-leaning former Soviet countries, particularly the Baltic countries – Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia. 

Trump, who commendably reiterated America’s support for NATO and its Article V clause, would then be expected to send American troops into direct combat against Russia should the Russian military invade a NATO ally in the Baltics.

Zelenskyy is not the only leader who has to deal with domestic politics, Trump does also.

Even now, polls show that the American people remain steadfastly behind Ukraine and do not want Putin to realize his territorial ambitions.

Roughly 7-in-10 (68%) U.S. adults – including 65% of Trump voters – want Russia to control no Ukrainian land at the end of the war per Economist/YouGov polling. 

Similarly, when asked whether the U.S. will be better off if Russia or Ukraine win the war, a large plurality (48%) of Americans believe it’s in U.S. interests to see Ukraine win – just 5% said Russia. 

By a 30-point margin (39% to 9%), Trump voters also feel that a Ukrainian victory would be better for the U.S. than a Russian one.

In that same vein, by a two-to-one margin (50% to 25%) Independents – critical for the GOP’s midterm hopes – favor increasing or maintaining military aid to Russia rather than decreasing or stopping all aid.