California Governor Gavin Newsom’s goal in life, besides looking like Gordon Gekko in “Wall Street,” is to become President Donald Trump’s foil in every way. If Trump is Superman, Newsom is Lex Luthor; if Trump is Hulk Hogan, Newsom is Andre the Giant; and if Trump is American Airlines, consider Newsom to be punctuality.
Why does Newsom want to frame himself as the anti-Trump? Because it’s been beneficial to his political survival, that’s why. He’s like a cruise ship magician, with one really good trick.
Here’s how it works:
Consider this, a Public Policy Institute of California poll from earlier this month showed a dramatic decline in support for Governor Newsom, with only 44 percent of Californians approving of Newsom’s job performance, down from 52 percent in February.
Additionally, a majority thought California was going in the wrong direction. In other words, Newsom and his leadership were about as popular in California as Pete Hegseth is in Iran right now.
Then, all hell broke loose in Paramount and Los Angeles, after Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents started rounding up illegal aliens for deportation.
Newsom and Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass took the position that despite officers being assaulted, Waymos being set ablaze, motorists being pelted with chunks of concrete, and buildings being vandalized, the “protests” were mostly peaceful and the Los Angeles Police Department had things “under control.” Right. Kind of like how Congress has spending under control.
Newsom’s objections were laughable. In fact, they were a real riot.
Trump didn’t buy it, and sent in hundreds of National Guard troops to protect federal property and agents – all against Newsom’s objections, of course.
Newsom embraced the conflict like it was Randi Weingarten at a DNC meeting, and at one point even challenged Trump administration “Border Czar” Tom Homan to arrest him. Not fake-arrest like Greta Thunberg. Newsom wanted real handcuffs and everything…making Newsom the first Democrat in history to ask a border agent to arrest anyone.
There is no question Newsom ended up benefiting from the face-off.
According to a Morning Consult survey taken June 13-15, as the LA protests were fizzling out, 11 percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents said they would back Newsom in a 2028 primary, up from 5 percent who said the same in March.
Those results put Newsom in second place, behind former Vice President Kamala Harris, who garnered the support of 34 percent of Democrats.
In response John Pitney, a politics professor at Claremont McKenna College told The Hill newspaper, “He’s doing really well among Democrats, both in California and throughout the nation. He’s getting a boost in 2025.”
By nationalizing what was essentially a California story, the deeply unpopular Newsom was able to regain his standing among Democrats, in a state where the Dems outnumber Republicans by a two-to-one margin.
If the focus is on Newsom’s performance on crime, homelessness, the budget, the insurance crisis, The French Laundry, wildfires, or any number of other California catastrophes, Newsom loses. However, if the framing is one of a typical partisan food fight, with Newsom branded as the leader of the Democratic resistance, he wins.
However, in politics you always have to worry about the law of unintended consequences. While it’s true that Newsom benefits from nationalizing every level of politics, the Democratic Party largely doesn’t: particularly, Senate Democrats.
In the pages of Split Ticket, Lakshya Jain, Harrison Lavelle, and Armin Thomas conclude that this type of partisanship is the real reason Democrats have been shut out from nearly half of the nation’s Senate seats. “The decline in ticket splitting means they [Democrats] can no longer overcome structural coalitional differences as easily as they once did,” they explain.
“In 2012, they were winning Senate races in states like North Dakota and West Virginia, even as Barack Obama lost them by more than 20 points. But virtually no modern candidate achieves that type of overperformance now,” they conclude.
In the last election, Democratic Senate candidates were elected in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, and Wisconsin, despite Trump having won those states. No Republican won in a state that Kamala Harris carried in the presidential election.
In short, Democrats benefit from ticket splitting a lot more than Republicans do.
If voters take Newsom’s cue and nationalize all aspects of politics, including down ballot races, the Democrats can say goodbye to the U.S. Senate for good.
None of this is any big surprise to those of us in California — we know that like everything with Newsom, as long as he personally benefits, he’s all in.
As we Californians say of people like Newsom: It’s his movie, we’re just in it.
So, enjoy those seats while you can, Senate Democrats. The rest of the country is in for a real treat.
John Phillips can be heard weekdays from noon to 3 p.m. on “The John Phillips Show” on KABC/AM 790.