EL SEGUNDO — To keep their season alive, the Lakers will need to beat the Minnesota Timberwolves on Wednesday night in Los Angeles.
And then again on Friday night at Target Center in Minneapolis.
And then one more time on Sunday at Crypto.com Arena.
Those are the circumstances the Lakers face after falling behind the Timberwolves, 3-1, in their best-of-seven first-round playoff series, which continues with a win-or-go-home Game 5 on Wednesday.
“We definitely should treat it like Game 7,” Lakers star Luka Doncic said after the team’s practice on Tuesday. “We lose and go home. No matter what, we can’t look [to] the future. So we got to focus on this game and then from there go on.”
Here are three things to keep an eye on during Game 5 on Wednesday evening:
CAREFUL WITH SWITCHING
The Lakers have been a switch-heavy defense against the Timberwolves.
And Minnesota has taken advantage of this, especially during Games 3 and 4 in Minneapolis, by having All-NBA guard Anthony Edwards target Doncic on switches for successful offense for the Timberwolves.
Edwards has driven by Doncic nearly at will, either getting to the rim or passing out to an open teammate after the Lakers have to send help, with Doncic not having the requisite footspeed and lateral quickness to consistently keep up with Edwards.
The 23-year-old Edwards’ subpar shooting near the rim (50% within five feet of the basket during the series compared to 61.9% during the regular season) has prevented Minnesota from capitalizing on him getting to the rim as much as he has.
Edwards is averaging 8.5 shots within five feet of the basket during this series compared to 5.2 during the regular season.
Doncic being switched onto Edwards in pick-and-rolls is bound to happen in doses.
But the Lakers could benefit from not conceding switching as easily as they do (soft switching) and mixing in more blitzes/trapping strategies when Edwards receives a ball-screen from Doncic’s defender.
POSSESSION BATTLE
The Lakers have been the better shooting team during the series.
Their true shooting percentage, a formula that incorporates free throws and higher-value 3-point shots, of 57.7% ranked No. 3 among all 16 first-round playoff teams entering Tuesday.
But the Timberwolves have controlled several areas of the game.
Minnesota has dominated the offensive glass, collecting 34.8% of its misses, the second-largest figure among playoff teams.
The Timberwolves have also taken better care of the ball, recording a giveaway on just 11.8% of their possessions (the fourth-best mark among playoff teams) compared to the Lakers’ 15.9% turnover rate (13th among 16 playoff teams).
This has led to Minnesota averaging 7.5 more field-goal attempts per game, while also taking two more free throw attempts – a margin too significant for the Lakers to overcome despite their shot-making, especially in Games 3 and 4.
For the Lakers to keep their season alive, they’ll need to narrow these margins that have been in Minnesota’s advantage for the series by either taking better care of the ball or cleaning up the defensive glass better.
They will aim to do both.
MATCHUPS
The Lakers made significant changes to their defensive matchups to begin Game 4, which could signify their priorities for Game 5.
Starting center Jaxson Hayes was the early primary defender against Jaden McDaniels, while Doncic guarded Julius Randle, LeBron James took on Mike Conley and Rui Hachimura was the primary Rudy Gobert defender.
Originally, Hayes was on Gobert, Doncic guarded McDaniels, James was on Randle and Hachimura was on Conley.
Trying to slow McDaniels appears to be a priority, with the 24-year-old wing averaging 23.7 points on 65.2% shooting (54.5% on 3-pointers) in the Timberwolves’ three wins so far.
Who guards McDaniels, especially if the Lakers change their starting lineup for Game 5, is a storyline to monitor after they had a bigger and more athletic player in Hayes start off on him to begin Game 4.
TIMBERWOLVES AT LAKERS
What: Western Conference playoffs, first round, Game 5
When: Wednesday, 7 p.m.
Where: Crypto.com Arena
TV/radio: Spectrum SportsNet, TNT, truTV, Max/710 AM
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