Almost a year and a half before the June 2026 primary election, California’s ongoing campaign for governor has begun taking on some overtones of last year’s Senate race.
Remember the early days of that one, when frequent candidate Eric Early, a Los Angeles lawyer and failed congressional hopeful, was the only Republican in a race involving three Democratic members of Congress? Those included eventual winner Adam Schiff, Orange County’s Katie Porter and Barbara Lee of Oakland.
The three Democrats assumed they were contesting for two slots on the November runoff election ballot, but were frustrated when former baseball great Steve Garvey entered as a Republican. Early, despite his quick entry, never had a shot at galvanizing virtually all Republican primary voters behind him. Star quality meant Garvey did, frustrating Porter and Lee, who gave up their congressional seats to run. Both now cool their heels in California while Congress votes on vital issues.
Similarly, the large corps of Democratic candidates for governor clearly now believes they are contesting for two runoff slots. They include the indecisive (but poll-leading) former Vice President Kamala Harris, former state Attorney General Xavier Becerra, ex-Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, ex-state Senate President Toni Atkins, state Schools Supt. Tony Thurmond, Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis, plus Porter.
Their common presumption is that Democrats will finish first and second in the primary. But the entry of Republican Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco could toss one 2024-style monkey wrench into their vision of the primary. Bianco lacks the name recognition Garvey used to beat out Porter as the No. 2 Senate primary finisher, but he starts with plenty of public awareness among voters likely to support him.
It almost seems like Bianco seeks trouble for its own sake. In 2014, he briefly joined the Oath Keepers, a far-right militia group. He later disavowed the group’s violent actions, particularly those related to the January 6 Capitol riot.
During the pandemic, Bianco refused both to enforce state health mandates in his county and to get vaccinated, drawing criticism for undermining public health efforts.
Plus, under his leadership, Riverside County jails experienced a spike in inmate deaths, leading to civil lawsuits and investigations of alleged unconstitutional policing practices. And, Bianco has said the 2020 Black Lives Matter protests “always turned to riots” — while one study found 93% were peaceful.
In some ways, that background makes him almost the perfect GOP primary candidate. Rebellious GOP voters faced with having to choose a Democrat or almost no one might love voting for such an outspoken rebel.
If he ended up the only Republican on the ballot and performed credibly in debates during Spring 2026, there’s a chance he could pull a Garvey and win enough GOP support to beat out almost all Democrats running.
Loose cannon Bianco might turn into the “bad boy” of the spring 2026 debates, saying things no Democrat would dare and thus becoming a darling of Donald Trump voting devotees.
A potential GOP rival is Ric Grenell of San Diego, a Donald Trump favorite just different enough to appeal to many Trump backers during the primary.
Grenell briefly served as acting Director of National Intelligence in Trump’s first administration, becoming the first openly gay person to hold a U.S. Cabinet-level position.
Trump also named him interim head of the Kennedy Center in Washington, D.C., despite a lack of obvious qualifications. And he carries out diplomatic missions for Trump as a special envoy. His Trump connection just might make him more formidable than Bianco at consolidating the GOP primary vote.
Grenell lacks major political experience in California. But both Schwarzenegger and Garvey clearly showed that experience is not a requirement to run for high office in this state.
This might be especially true if California Republicans are tired of seeing no one but establishment Democrats running their state.
All this gives the current muddled run for governor the potential for pulling a 2024 and turning into a simple Republican vs. Democrat matchup in November 2026. But so far, neither Bianco nor Grenell has emerged as a GOP solidifier. Of course, that didn’t happen for Garvey, either, until last year’s primary was almost upon him.
Email Thomas Elias at tdelias@aol.com.
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